Full spoilers follow.
The film's structural twist is that there is no twist. Reichardt front-loads the crime: J.B. Mooney recruits a crew of amateurs, and the theft of the four Arthur Dove canvases from the Framingham museum actually goes off. What ought to be the climax of a heist movie lands early and almost casually — and then the film spends its remaining running time on the part other movies cut away from.
From there everything degrades. The paintings prove to be an anchor rather than a payday: there is no buyer waiting, no infrastructure, no plan for converting art into money or money into a new life. The accomplices were never the professionals J.B. imagined them to be, and the pressure of investigation pulls the scheme apart from the edges. J.B. takes flight, and the back half of the film becomes a study in fugitive aimlessness — how does it feel to be on the run without a clear goal, and how far will a man go to escape his own choices?
The real revelation is characterological rather than plot-driven. Over the course of the unraveling, the hairline crack in J.B.'s pleasant surface widens, and the film quietly establishes that the amiable, hangdog man we have been watching is not especially decent. He leans on his family, uses the people around him, and lets others absorb the risk and the cost while he keeps moving. The film's governing insight — that being hapless doesn't make you harmless — is delivered not as a speech but as an accumulation: everyone in his orbit ends up worse off than he does, until he too runs out of road.
Read backwards, the title lands as the joke it always was. "The Mastermind" is what J.B. believes he is, and what the world will call him with contempt — the sardonic nickname for the man whose estimation of his abilities never matched reality. The Vietnam broadcasts running through the film retroactively become the wider frame: a country and a man both discovering that confidence was never a substitute for a plan, and that the hardest part of any escape is that there's nowhere to escape to.